{"id":13155,"date":"2017-06-11T17:42:07","date_gmt":"2017-06-11T17:42:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.odemocratagb.com\/?p=13155"},"modified":"2017-06-11T17:42:07","modified_gmt":"2017-06-11T17:42:07","slug":"opiniao-custos-da-uemoa-para-a-guine-bissau-duas-chaves-para-100-portas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.odemocratagb.com\/?p=13155","title":{"rendered":"Opini\u00e3o: CUSTOS DA UEMOA PARA A GUIN\u00c9-BISSAU – \u00a0duas chaves para 100 portas"},"content":{"rendered":"

[PARTE 1: Pol<\/strong><\/span>\u00ed<\/span>tica Monet<\/span>\u00e1<\/span><\/strong>ria<\/strong>] Nas \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, o crescimento econ\u00f3mico verificado na Guin\u00e9 Bissau se situa a cima da m\u00e9dia mundial, embora isso n\u00e3o se refletir na vida dos guineenses. O desemprego continua acentuado e cada vez mais agravante. Perante esse e mais outros fen\u00f3menos econ\u00f3micos, \u00e9 urgente encontrar instrumentos de mercado de modo a garantir o melhor equil\u00edbrio macroecon\u00f3mico.<\/span><\/p>\n

Com ades\u00e3o a UEMOA, o pa\u00eds beneficiou de uma certa seguran\u00e7a cambial e a estabilidade dos pre\u00e7os (a taxa de infla\u00e7\u00e3o antes da ades\u00e3o rodava acima dos 50%, atualmente \u00e9 de 2% em m\u00e9dia), mas isso custou a perda da autonomia monet\u00e1ria e a exposi\u00e7\u00e3o aos eventuais choques assim\u00e9tricos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nas economias de mercado, a estabilidade macroecon\u00f3mica \u00e9 garantida pelas duas grandes entidades: O Banco Central, atrav\u00e9s da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e o Minist\u00e9rio das Finan\u00e7as pela pol\u00edtica or\u00e7ament\u00e1ria (fiscal e salarial). Nas uni\u00f5es monet\u00e1rias, o banco central de acordo com o seu mandato, responde pelo equil\u00edbrio agregado da economia da zona, enquanto que os minist\u00e9rios das finan\u00e7as locais conduzem as suas pol\u00edticas or\u00e7ament\u00e1rias em dire\u00e7\u00e3o aos objetivos espec\u00edficos e em defesa aos eventuais choques assim\u00e9tricos da politica monet\u00e1ria. Ora, na Guin\u00e9-Bissau, as duas chaves n\u00e3o t\u00eam sido eficientes na economia real: a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria \u00e9 quase ausente e a pol\u00edtica or\u00e7ament\u00e1ria continua a degradar-se.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na primeira fase, o presente artigo concentra-se na primeira \u201cchave\u201d (pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria do BCEAO) \u2013 como ferramenta que visa a nortear as principais vari\u00e1veis macroecon\u00f3micas como a infla\u00e7\u00e3o, o desemprego e o crescimento econ\u00f4mico sustent\u00e1vel.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O BCEAO, tal com qualquer banco central, tem o seu mandato que ser\u00e1 concretizado atrav\u00e9s de certos instrumentos, que merecer\u00e3o uma abordagem sum\u00e1ria nos par\u00e1grafos subsequentes. Conforme o artigo 8 do estatuto do BCEAO, o mandato do BC \u00e9 de garantir a estabilidade dos pre\u00e7os nos pa\u00edses membros da UEMOA. Portanto, o desemprego, o crescimento econ\u00f4mico e outros fen\u00f3menos macroecon\u00f3micos s\u00e3o de inteira responsabilidade dos minist\u00e9rios das finan\u00e7as locais. A atual situa\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f3mica da Guin\u00e9-Bissau oferece uma larga margem para combater o desemprego e garantir o crescimento econ\u00f3mico sustent\u00e1vel sem afetar o objetivo do BC (inflation targeting)<\/i>, uma vez que, o percurso \u00e9 longo para o pleno emprego.<\/span><\/p>\n

Para cumprir com o mandato, o BCEAO utiliza dois instrumentos convencionais: o mercado aberto (open market<\/i>) e as opera\u00e7\u00f5es repurchase agreement (REPO) <\/span><\/i>junto das institui\u00e7\u00f5es financeiras.<\/span><\/p>\n

Open market \u00e9 um mecanismo utilizado pelos bancos centrais para garantir a liquidez (dinheiro) necess\u00e1ria na economia atrav\u00e9s da compra e venda de t\u00edtulos (mais comum, os bilhetes de tesouro). O BC (banco central) vende os t\u00edtulos quando necessita de remover a liquidez da economia, e compra quando \u00e9 necess\u00e1rio enjeitar a economia.\u00a0Esse instrumento tem um efeito a curto prazo nas taxas de juro interbanc\u00e1rias, e \u00e9 muito eficiente no controle da infla\u00e7\u00e3o num determinado corredor (inflation targeting<\/i>).<\/span><\/p>\n

Entretanto, esse instrumento exige um largo portf\u00f3lio de t\u00edtulos para travar as press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias. O tamanho deste portf\u00f3lio depende do n\u00famero dos bilhetes de tesouro (BT\u2019s) emitidos pelos governos dos pa\u00edses membros. A insufici\u00eancia de t\u00edtulos condiciona as opera\u00e7\u00f5es da remo\u00e7\u00e3o da liquidez para travar as press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Esta pode ser uma das rez\u00f5es que levaram a Guin\u00e9-Bissau a emitir tantos bilhetes de tesouro junto ao BC. Nas Economias desenvolvidas, para evitar que os bancos financiem diretamente o or\u00e7amento de Estado, o que lhes daria certos poderes de influ\u00eancia na vida pol\u00edtica do pa\u00eds, \u00e9 proibido a transa\u00e7\u00e3o dos bilhetes de tesouro no mercado prim\u00e1rio. Na aus\u00eancia de mercado secund\u00e1rio (bolsas) e a fraca liquidez dos bilhetes de tesouro o, l\u00f3gico comprador dos BT’s da Guin\u00e9-Bissau \u00e9 o BCEAO. Dado a fraca liquidez destes BT\u2019s, a \u00fanica forma de torn\u00e1-los atrativos \u00e9 elevar o valor do cupon, o que consequentemente, aumenta os encargos do governo para cumprir com as suas obriga\u00e7\u00f5es de contrato. Logo, o governo reage novamente com a restri\u00e7\u00e3o or\u00e7amental para dar a entrada aos novos t\u00edtulos – o primeiro choque da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria com a pol\u00edtica or\u00e7ament\u00e1ria.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

O segundo instrumento (repurchase agreement, REPO) <\/span><\/i>\u00e9 utilizado para influenciar a taxa de juros de MMI (Mercado Monet\u00e1rio Interbanc\u00e1rio) e a taxa overnight (taxa MMI a 24h) devido a sua natureza de curta dura\u00e7\u00e3o. Geralmente, as opera\u00e7\u00f5es de REPO s\u00e3o semanais ou mensais e constitui uma ferramenta do BC para enjeitar\/remover certo volume de liquidez atrav\u00e9s de uma taxa de juro m\u00ednima pr\u00e9-estabelecida (em alguns pa\u00edses a taxa de juros \u00e9 fixa).\u00a0 O BC tamb\u00e9m pode controlar a massa monet\u00e1ria atrav\u00e9s das reservas exigidas junto aos bancos comerciais. Essa estrat\u00e9gia tem um efeito imediato nos balan\u00e7os dos pr\u00f3prios bancos comerciais e consequentemente, na poupan\u00e7a e no clima de investimento. A REPO tem um fraco impacto na economia real da Guin\u00e9-Bissau, devido a baixa taxa de bancariza\u00e7\u00e3o e ao d\u00e9bil rendimento das fam\u00edlias.<\/span><\/p>\n

Para aumentar a taxa da bancariza\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 necess\u00e1rio criar institui\u00e7\u00f5es de microcr\u00e9dito e bancos especializados. O setor agr\u00edcola merece toda a aten\u00e7\u00e3o, visto que, \u00e9 principal impulsionador do crescimento econ\u00f3mico da Guin\u00e9-Bissau, no entanto, a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de banco agr\u00edcola \u00e9 muito aconselh\u00e1vel para dinamizar o setor num momento em que o pre\u00e7o da castanha de cajo atingiu o n\u00edvel hist\u00f3rico. As mulheres \u201cbideras\u201d s\u00e3o locomotoras do consumo, mas, o fraco n\u00edvel de alfabetiza\u00e7\u00e3o bancaria e a informalidade das suas atividades travam o acesso ao financiamento banc\u00e1rio para alavancar as suas produ\u00e7\u00f5es. Uma das solu\u00e7\u00f5es seria a cria\u00e7\u00e3o de institui\u00e7\u00f5es de microcr\u00e9dito tradicionais, tal como fez o nobel da paz, Muhammad Yunus (o banqueiro dos pobres) em Bangladesh.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

(pr<\/span><\/b>\u00f3x<\/span><\/b>imo artigo, a pol<\/span><\/b>\u00ed<\/span><\/b>tica or\u00e7ament\u00e1ria) <\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

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Por: Suleimane Djalo<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Finalista de Master em Economia Monet\u00e1ria e Financeira<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/i><\/b>Universidade ISCTE-IUL, Lisboa\u00a0<\/span>\/Portugal<\/b><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

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[PARTE 1: Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria] Nas \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas, o crescimento econ\u00f3mico verificado na Guin\u00e9 Bissau se situa a cima da m\u00e9dia…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":13154,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,23,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inicio","category-economia","category-opinioes","wpcat-6-id","wpcat-23-id","wpcat-25-id"],"yoast_head":"\nOpini\u00e3o: CUSTOS DA UEMOA PARA A GUIN\u00c9-BISSAU - \u00a0duas chaves para 100 portas - O Democrata GB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.odemocratagb.com\/?p=13155\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opini\u00e3o: CUSTOS DA UEMOA PARA A GUIN\u00c9-BISSAU - 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